Electoral College Estimates
The table below shows the results of our prediction algorithm for the Presidential Elections in November. The method by which a projection is determined is complicated, using local regression, but its all explained if you're really curious. The algorithm outputs a projected result and the Electoral Votes are assigned based on those percentages. If a candidate gets a higher percentage than their opponent they will receive all of the Electoral Votes for that specific state. In the real election Maine and Nebraska award their EVs based on congressional districts, but for the current analysis a complete allocation will be used. Perhaps in the future after further data has be collected Nebraska and Maine will be predicted on the congressional level. The polls used in the calculations can be viewed on our polls and graphs page.
| Alabama (9) | Safe Rep | 35.8 | 56.29 | 0 | Bush |
| Alaska (3) | Safe Rep | 42.89 | 54.14 | 0.28 | Bush |
| Arizona (10) | Weak Rep | 46.07 | 49.76 | 20.76 | Bush |
| Arkansas (6) | Core Rep | 43.36 | 51.71 | 8.63 | Bush |
| California (55) | Safe Dem | 58.34 | 33.86 | 0 | Kerry |
| Colorado (9) | Weak Dem | 51.35 | 46.59 | 91.76 | Bush |
| Connecticut (7) | Safe Dem | 55.78 | 32.64 | 0 | Kerry |
| Delaware (3) | Safe Dem | 62.52 | 34.31 | 0 | Kerry |
| Florida (27) | Toss Up | 48.93 | 47.73 | 61.09 | Bush |
| Georgia (15) | Weak Rep | 46.27 | 51.03 | 9.5 | Bush |
| Hawaii (4) | Safe Dem | 67.5 | 28 | 0 | Kerry |
| Idaho (4) | Safe Rep | 24.9 | 69.6 | 0 | Bush |
| Illinois (21) | Safe Dem | 51.59 | 38.32 | 0.14 | Kerry |
| Indiana (11) | Weak Rep | 44.85 | 49.87 | 5.04 | Bush |
| Iowa (7) | Safe Dem | 53.68 | 38.12 | 100 | Bush |
| Kansas (6) | Safe Rep | 39.12 | 54.87 | 0 | Bush |
| Kentucky (8) | Safe Rep | 40.93 | 54.53 | 0.36 | Bush |
| Louisiana (9) | Weak Rep | 39.01 | 43.89 | 2.77 | Bush |
| Maine (4) | Safe Dem | 55.16 | 39.23 | 0.01 | Kerry |
| Maryland (10) | Safe Dem | 59.79 | 36.87 | 0 | Kerry |
| Massachusetts (12) | Safe Dem | 55.36 | 36.67 | 0 | Kerry |
| Michigan (17) | Safe Dem | 52.49 | 38.12 | 0.26 | Kerry |
| Minnesota (10) | Core Dem | 50.82 | 44.79 | 1.59 | Kerry |
| Mississippi (6) | Core Rep | 42.19 | 49.92 | 0.78 | Bush |
| Missouri (11) | Toss Up | 49.18 | 48.44 | 57.1 | Bush |
| Montana (3) | Toss Up | 46.62 | 49.3 | 21.18 | Bush |
| Nebraska (5) | Safe Rep | 36.84 | 57.15 | 0 | Bush |
| Nevada (5) | Safe Dem | 51.94 | 42.02 | 99.03 | Bush |
| New Hampshire (4) | Safe Dem | 52.01 | 42.42 | 1.22 | Kerry |
| New Jersey (15) | Safe Dem | 55.72 | 40.23 | 0.04 | Kerry |
| New Mexico (5) | Core Dem | 52.65 | 44.88 | 98.21 | Bush |
| New York (31) | Safe Dem | 62.48 | 31.93 | 0 | Kerry |
| North Carolina (15) | Toss Up | 48.4 | 48.8 | 45.68 | Bush |
| North Dakota (3) | Toss Up | 44.54 | 42.8 | 70.65 | Bush |
| Ohio (20) | Weak Dem | 49.86 | 46.61 | 79.26 | Bush |
| Oklahoma (7) | Safe Rep | 34.56 | 61.84 | 0 | Bush |
| Oregon (7) | Safe Dem | 54.67 | 40.52 | 0 | Kerry |
| Pennsylvania (21) | Safe Dem | 52.54 | 41.31 | 0.35 | Kerry |
| Rhode Island (4) | Safe Dem | 46.56 | 25.11 | 0 | Kerry |
| South Carolina (8) | Safe Rep | 42.02 | 54.55 | 0 | Bush |
| South Dakota (3) | Core Rep | 43.45 | 51.6 | 2.06 | Bush |
| Tennessee (11) | Safe Rep | 41.23 | 54.83 | 0.04 | Bush |
| Texas (34) | Safe Rep | 41.09 | 51.62 | 0.21 | Bush |
| Utah (5) | Safe Rep | 32.16 | 55.63 | 0 | Bush |
| Vermont (3) | Safe Dem | 55.9 | 33.82 | 0 | Kerry |
| Virginia (13) | Weak Dem | 51.68 | 46.05 | 91.84 | Bush |
| Washington (11) | Safe Dem | 54.03 | 40.35 | 0 | Kerry |
| West Virginia (5) | Safe Rep | 41.25 | 52.81 | 0.59 | Bush |
| Wisconsin (10) | Safe Dem | 53.45 | 41.33 | 0.05 | Kerry |
| Wyoming (3) | Safe Rep | 36.36 | 57.58 | 0 | Bush |
| DC (3) | Safe Dem | 82 | 13 | 0 | Kerry |
| Total (538) | Obama | 352 | 186 | | Bush |
* 270 Electoral Votes needed to become president elect.