Electoral College Estimates

The table below shows the results of our prediction algorithm for the Presidential Elections in November. The method by which a projection is determined is complicated, using local regression, but its all explained if you're really curious. The algorithm outputs a projected result and the Electoral Votes are assigned based on those percentages. If a candidate gets a higher percentage than their opponent they will receive all of the Electoral Votes for that specific state. In the real election Maine and Nebraska award their EVs based on congressional districts, but for the current analysis a complete allocation will be used. Perhaps in the future after further data has be collected Nebraska and Maine will be predicted on the congressional level. The polls used in the calculations can be viewed on our polls and graphs page.

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State (EVs)StatusObama %McCain %Flip %2004 Result
Alabama (9)Safe Rep35.856.290Bush
Alaska (3)Safe Rep42.8954.140.28Bush
Arizona (10)Weak Rep46.0749.7620.76Bush
Arkansas (6)Core Rep43.3651.718.63Bush
California (55)Safe Dem58.3433.860Kerry
Colorado (9)Weak Dem51.3546.5991.76Bush
Connecticut (7)Safe Dem55.7832.640Kerry
Delaware (3)Safe Dem62.5234.310Kerry
Florida (27)Toss Up48.9347.7361.09Bush
Georgia (15)Weak Rep46.2751.039.5Bush
Hawaii (4)Safe Dem67.5280Kerry
Idaho (4)Safe Rep24.969.60Bush
Illinois (21)Safe Dem51.5938.320.14Kerry
Indiana (11)Weak Rep44.8549.875.04Bush
Iowa (7)Safe Dem53.6838.12100Bush
Kansas (6)Safe Rep39.1254.870Bush
Kentucky (8)Safe Rep40.9354.530.36Bush
Louisiana (9)Weak Rep39.0143.892.77Bush
Maine (4)Safe Dem55.1639.230.01Kerry
Maryland (10)Safe Dem59.7936.870Kerry
Massachusetts (12)Safe Dem55.3636.670Kerry
Michigan (17)Safe Dem52.4938.120.26Kerry
Minnesota (10)Core Dem50.8244.791.59Kerry
Mississippi (6)Core Rep42.1949.920.78Bush
Missouri (11)Toss Up49.1848.4457.1Bush
Montana (3)Toss Up46.6249.321.18Bush
Nebraska (5)Safe Rep36.8457.150Bush
Nevada (5)Safe Dem51.9442.0299.03Bush
New Hampshire (4)Safe Dem52.0142.421.22Kerry
New Jersey (15)Safe Dem55.7240.230.04Kerry
New Mexico (5)Core Dem52.6544.8898.21Bush
New York (31)Safe Dem62.4831.930Kerry
North Carolina (15)Toss Up48.448.845.68Bush
North Dakota (3)Toss Up44.5442.870.65Bush
Ohio (20)Weak Dem49.8646.6179.26Bush
Oklahoma (7)Safe Rep34.5661.840Bush
Oregon (7)Safe Dem54.6740.520Kerry
Pennsylvania (21)Safe Dem52.5441.310.35Kerry
Rhode Island (4)Safe Dem46.5625.110Kerry
South Carolina (8)Safe Rep42.0254.550Bush
South Dakota (3)Core Rep43.4551.62.06Bush
Tennessee (11)Safe Rep41.2354.830.04Bush
Texas (34)Safe Rep41.0951.620.21Bush
Utah (5)Safe Rep32.1655.630Bush
Vermont (3)Safe Dem55.933.820Kerry
Virginia (13)Weak Dem51.6846.0591.84Bush
Washington (11)Safe Dem54.0340.350Kerry
West Virginia (5)Safe Rep41.2552.810.59Bush
Wisconsin (10)Safe Dem53.4541.330.05Kerry
Wyoming (3)Safe Rep36.3657.580Bush
DC (3)Safe Dem82130Kerry
Total (538)Obama352186 Bush

* 270 Electoral Votes needed to become president elect.

Senate Projection Map