Senate Projections

The table below shows the results of our prediction algorithm for the Senate Elections in November. The method by which a projection is determined is complicated, using local regression, but its all explained if you're really curious. The algorithm outputs a projected result for each candidate; the candidate with the highest projected percentage is declared and the associated party is credited with a Senator. The races in Arkansas, Wyoming-A and Wyoming-B are devoid of non-partisan polling, thus making a projection impossible; in these situations the previous Senate election results are used in place of a projection. The polls used in the calculations can be viewed on our polls and graphs page.

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Senate Projection Map
StateStatusDem %Rep %Flip %Incumbent
AlabamaSafe Rep32.2663.30Sessions (R)
AlaskaCore Dem51.0443.5199.03Stevens (R)
ArkansasSafe Dem54.146.30Pryor (D)
ColoradoSafe Dem55.1641.7599.88Allard (R)
DelawareSafe Dem64.8320Biden (D)
GeorgiaWeak Rep43.6249.1212.77Chambliss (R)
IdahoSafe Rep30580Risch (R)
IllinoisSafe Dem59340Durbin (D)
IowaSafe Dem60.4936.060Harkin (D)
KansasSafe Rep32.1263.950Roberts (R)
KentuckyCore Rep44.1452.850.04McConnell (R)
LouisianaSafe Dem51.9935.650.02Landrieu (D)
MaineSafe Rep39.9655.940Collins (R)
MassachusettsSafe Dem56.2529.60Kerry (D)
MichiganSafe Dem59.3631.450Levin (D)
MinnesotaToss Up40.2142.5626.65Coleman (R)
Mississippi-ASafe Rep32590Cochran (R)
Mississippi-BSafe Rep40.2352.820.18Wiker (R)
MontanaSafe Dem64310Baucus (D)
NebraskaSafe Rep35.555.40Hagel (R)
New HampshireSafe Dem50.6241.4899.92Sununu (R)
New JerseySafe Dem51.2934.270Lautenberg (D)
New MexicoSafe Dem54.3437.2100Domenici (R)
North CarolinaCore Dem49.0442.5993.05Dole (R)
OklahomaSafe Rep40.5151.750.89Inhofe (R)
OregonWeak Dem49.6545.6577.09Smith (R)
Rhode IslandSafe Dem72200Reed (D)
South CarolinaSafe Rep39.8356.330Graham (R)
South DakotaSafe Dem60350Johnson (D)
TennesseeSafe Rep34.6262.680Alexander (R)
TexasSafe Rep36.2546.41.28Cornyn (R)
VirginiaSafe Dem60.0433.52100Warner (R)
West VirginiaSafe Dem61330Rockefeller (D)
Wyoming-ASafe Rep27.172.90Enzi (R)
Wyoming-BSafe Rep29.970.10Barrasso (R)
Total (100)Dem5842 Democrats

*60 Senators needed for filibuster proof majority. The two indepedent Senators are added to the Democratic total because they currently caucus with the Democrats.

Electoral College Projection Map