Senate Projections
The table below shows the results of our prediction algorithm for the Senate Elections in November. The method by which a projection is determined is complicated, using local regression, but its all explained if you're really curious. The algorithm outputs a projected result for each candidate; the candidate with the highest projected percentage is declared and the associated party is credited with a Senator. The races in Arkansas, Wyoming-A and Wyoming-B are devoid of non-partisan polling, thus making a projection impossible; in these situations the previous Senate election results are used in place of a projection. The polls used in the calculations can be viewed on our polls and graphs page.
| Alabama | Safe Rep | 32.26 | 63.3 | 0 | Sessions (R) |
| Alaska | Core Dem | 51.04 | 43.51 | 99.03 | Stevens (R) |
| Arkansas | Safe Dem | 54.1 | 46.3 | 0 | Pryor (D) |
| Colorado | Safe Dem | 55.16 | 41.75 | 99.88 | Allard (R) |
| Delaware | Safe Dem | 64.8 | 32 | 0 | Biden (D) |
| Georgia | Weak Rep | 43.62 | 49.12 | 12.77 | Chambliss (R) |
| Idaho | Safe Rep | 30 | 58 | 0 | Risch (R) |
| Illinois | Safe Dem | 59 | 34 | 0 | Durbin (D) |
| Iowa | Safe Dem | 60.49 | 36.06 | 0 | Harkin (D) |
| Kansas | Safe Rep | 32.12 | 63.95 | 0 | Roberts (R) |
| Kentucky | Core Rep | 44.14 | 52.85 | 0.04 | McConnell (R) |
| Louisiana | Safe Dem | 51.99 | 35.65 | 0.02 | Landrieu (D) |
| Maine | Safe Rep | 39.96 | 55.94 | 0 | Collins (R) |
| Massachusetts | Safe Dem | 56.25 | 29.6 | 0 | Kerry (D) |
| Michigan | Safe Dem | 59.36 | 31.45 | 0 | Levin (D) |
| Minnesota | Toss Up | 40.21 | 42.56 | 26.65 | Coleman (R) |
| Mississippi-A | Safe Rep | 32 | 59 | 0 | Cochran (R) |
| Mississippi-B | Safe Rep | 40.23 | 52.82 | 0.18 | Wiker (R) |
| Montana | Safe Dem | 64 | 31 | 0 | Baucus (D) |
| Nebraska | Safe Rep | 35.5 | 55.4 | 0 | Hagel (R) |
| New Hampshire | Safe Dem | 50.62 | 41.48 | 99.92 | Sununu (R) |
| New Jersey | Safe Dem | 51.29 | 34.27 | 0 | Lautenberg (D) |
| New Mexico | Safe Dem | 54.34 | 37.2 | 100 | Domenici (R) |
| North Carolina | Core Dem | 49.04 | 42.59 | 93.05 | Dole (R) |
| Oklahoma | Safe Rep | 40.51 | 51.75 | 0.89 | Inhofe (R) |
| Oregon | Weak Dem | 49.65 | 45.65 | 77.09 | Smith (R) |
| Rhode Island | Safe Dem | 72 | 20 | 0 | Reed (D) |
| South Carolina | Safe Rep | 39.83 | 56.33 | 0 | Graham (R) |
| South Dakota | Safe Dem | 60 | 35 | 0 | Johnson (D) |
| Tennessee | Safe Rep | 34.62 | 62.68 | 0 | Alexander (R) |
| Texas | Safe Rep | 36.25 | 46.4 | 1.28 | Cornyn (R) |
| Virginia | Safe Dem | 60.04 | 33.52 | 100 | Warner (R) |
| West Virginia | Safe Dem | 61 | 33 | 0 | Rockefeller (D) |
| Wyoming-A | Safe Rep | 27.1 | 72.9 | 0 | Enzi (R) |
| Wyoming-B | Safe Rep | 29.9 | 70.1 | 0 | Barrasso (R) |
| Total (100) | Dem | 58 | 42 | | Democrats |
*60 Senators needed for filibuster proof majority. The two indepedent Senators are added to the Democratic total because they currently caucus with the Democrats.